Energy Transition Metals

Author: Boer Lukas, Pescatori Andrea, and Stuermer Martin

Volume/Issue: Volume 2021 Issue 243

Publication date: October 2021

ISBN: 9781513599373

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Topics covered in this book

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Economics- Macroeconomics , Economics / General , Environmental Conservation and Protection , Conditional forecasts , structural vector autoregressions , structual scenario analysis , energy transition , metals , fossil fuels , prices , climate change , , estimate supply elasticity , metals production , aggregate commodity demand shock , price risk , Metals , Metal prices , Copper , Supply elasticity , Global

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Summary

The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.