Guatemala: Macroeconomic Frameworks: Diagnostic Mission

This report summarizes a technical assistance diagnostic mission supporting the Guatemalan authorities' request to strengthen the Ministry of Public Finance's (MINFIN) macroeconomic projection and policy analysis capacity. The Bank of Guatemala (BANGUAT) produces the official macroeconomic baseline that MINFIN uses as its anchor. However, MINFIN lacks an internal analytical framework to conduct scenario and risk analysis over that baseline, to generate level forecasts for variables and horizons relevant to fiscal management that BANGUAT does not publish externally, and to support the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MFMP) and the Fiscal Risks Report with internally consistent macroeconomic scenarios. To address this gap, the mission recommended developing a macroeconomic projection tool based on the IMF ICD Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM), alongside improvements in data management, documentation, training, and institutional coordination to strengthen policy analysis, external communication, and institutional sustainability.