IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, July 2008:Global slowdown and rising inflation

The global economy is in a tough spot, caught between sharply slowing demand in many advanced economies and rising inflation everywhere, notably in emerging and developing economies. Global growth is expected to decelerate significantly in the second half of 2008, before recovering gradually in 2009. At the same time, rising energy and commodity prices have boosted inflationary pressure, particularly in emerging and developing economies. Against this background, the top priority for policymakers is to head off rising inflationary pressure, while keeping sight of risks to growth. In many emerging economies, tighter monetary policy and greater fiscal restraint are required, combined in some cases with more flexible exchange rate management. In the major advanced economies, the case for monetary tightening is less compelling, given that inflation expectations and labor costs are projected to remain well anchored while growth weakens noticeably, but inflationary pressures need to be monitored carefully.