Scaling Up Quality Public Investment for Stronger Growth: Bulgaria

The paper discusses Bulgaria’s public investment needs and its efficiency and assesses prospects for accelerating economic growth and income convergence through scaling up quality public investment. Utilizing substantial EU grants to fund public investment offers Bulgaria a unique opportunity to finance important infrastructure projects without relying on debt. However, slow absorption of these grant funds and inefficiencies in public investment management remain significant challenges. The analysis highlights the critical role of efficient public investment in boosting productivity and fostering sustainable growth. Using the DIGNAR model calibrated to Bulgaria’s economy, simulations suggest that full EU funds absorption and improved public investment efficiency could boost GDP by 2.3 percent in 2030. The findings underscore the importance of steadfast reforms to accelerate EU fund absorption and improve efficiency, including through enhanced investment planning and procurement processes, to boost growth.