The Case for Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures in Spai

Patterns, Drivers and Policy Implications

House prices in Spain have risen rapidly since the pandemic, and the share of riskier mortgages at issuance has increased, suggesting a potential buildup of mortgage-related vulnerabilities.
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Volume/Issue: Volume 2026 Issue 055
Publication date:
ISBN: 9798229051712
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Exports and Imports , Finance , Economics- Macroeconomics , Mortgage lending , borrower-based measures , mortgage default risk , housing markets , Spain , Loans , Mortgages , Housing prices , Collateral , Income

Summary

House prices in Spain have risen rapidly since the pandemic, and the share of riskier mortgages at issuance has increased, suggesting a potential buildup of mortgage-related vulnerabilities. This paper provides analytical inputs to inform the potential design and calibration of borrower-based measures (BBMs), currently not activated in Spain. It first reviews international experience with BBMs, then uses Spanish loan-level data and scenario-based stress tests to assess alternative calibrations. The results suggest that loan-to-value caps would deliver the largest reduction in default risk and mortgage portfolio losses, with additional gains from income-based caps. BBMs would complement capital buffers by addressing risks at origination.