A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations : Evidence From the World Economic Outlook and Time Series Models

Evidence From the World Economic Outlook and Time Series Models

A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations : Evidence From the World Economic Outlook and Time Series Models
A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine... READ MORE...

Publication date: June 1992
ISBN 9781451972238
$15.00

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