How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?
We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over.... READ MORE...

Publication date: March 2018
ISBN 9781484344873
$18.00

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Publication date: March 2018

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