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Several concepts of contagion are distinguished. It is argued that only models that admit of...

The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using...

We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and...

Fiscal problems have long been considered a central feature of financial--that is, currency,...

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997....

This paper takes the Asian crisis as an example to show that the Autoregressive Conditional...