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We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt...

Using realized volatility to estimate conditional variance of financial returns, we compare...

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a...

The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of...

This paper estimates an inflation function and forecasts one-year ahead inflation for Japan. It...

Time series on economic activity in developing countries, in particular real GDP, are reported...