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We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a...

We study inflation dynamics in Colombia using a bottom-up Phillips curve approach. This allows us...

e develop a toolkit to assess the consistency between real sector and financial sector forecasts....

This paper sets out Management’s response to the Independent Evaluation Office’s (IEO) evaluation...

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public...

"Program numbers" from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts,...