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The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of...

The macroeconomic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa continues to strengthen. Growth is expected to...

Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a...

This paper discusses the risks of stagnation over the medium term in the euro area. It examines...

This paper discusses the risks of stagnation over the medium term in the euro area. It examines...

This paper formulates a novel modeling framework that delivers: (a) forecasts of indicators of...