Republic of Poland

The strong growth upswing since 2017 was supported by three coincident cycles—a rebound in euro-area activity, a substantial increase in EU transfers, and new large social benefit programs. Unemployment was reduced to a record low and Poland has attracted large inflows of foreign workers. Slowing external demand, however, is projected to moderate real GDP growth in 2019, while medium-term prospects are more subdued against a shrinking working-age population, modest private investment and tepid productivity gains. Increased state control of the financial sector raises challenges for sound supervision, and a larger state footprint in the economy could slow productivity growth. Risks to the outlook for the Polish economy from external developments are elevated, while any slippage from prudent policies and sound governance principles could dent investors’ risk appetite.