Uganda

This is Uganda’s first stand-alone Article IV consultation after an extended period of program engagements. During this time, Uganda has made impressive development gains and achieved the Millennium Development Goal on halving poverty ahead of schedule. Going forward, Uganda must create over 600,000 jobs per year to keep up with its growing population, while making further progress on poverty reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. The authorities’ development strategy centers on infrastructure and a nascent oil sector. If investments proceed as planned, growth could range between 6 and 7 percent over the next five years (3 to 4 percent in per-capita terms). Investments would contribute to rising public debt and a widening current account deficit until oil production starts. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including from weather-related shocks, the regional security situation, shocks from the global economic environment, and the political and security situation in the run-up to the 2021 general elections.