Qatar

Context: Availability of buffers has enabled Qatar to successfully absorb the adverse shocks from the 2014–16 decline in oil prices and the 2017 diplomatic rift. The policy priorities are fiscal consolidation, strengthened fiscal policy frameworks, enhanced resiliency of the financial sector, financial inclusion, and a diversified economy. Outlook and risks: Stronger real GDP growth is envisaged in the near term, with a recovery in hydrocarbon output. Medium-term growth will be buoyed by increased gas production and non-hydrocarbon growth. Expenditure consolidation would help to sustain fiscal and external surpluses. Ample liquidity will enable credit growth to support non-hydrocarbon GDP. Trade and geopolitical tensions could undermine investor confidence and weaken fiscal and external positions. Qatar is well placed to contain the adverse macro-financial implications of downside risks in view of considerable buffers.