Mali

Mali is a low-income fragile country facing significant development challenges that have intensified due to insurgency, terrorism, and social tensions. Implementation of the 2015 peace agreement is challenging, and the authorities have limited control over the North and Center regions. Mali’s social development could be further undermined by the recent instability and interethnic violence that complicates the government’s ability to implement basic social and poverty-reducing programs. The economic outlook for Mali remains positive but subject to important downside risks. The potential real growth rate is estimated at about 5 percent per year and inflation is expected to continue to be contained by the CFAF’s peg to the euro. Downside risks relate to the possible further deterioration of the security situation, potential shocks to the terms of trade (the price of gold, cotton, and fuels), and adverse weather conditions. In addition, a continued shortfall in domestically-financed public investment, if revenue mobilization does not improve as expected, could adversely affect growth potential and performance.