Rwanda

Growth continues to outpace expectations. 2019 H1 growth was 10.3 percent y/y, fueled by private and public construction. Inflation rose at a slightly slower pace than anticipated in the first half of 2019, and 12-month average inflation was below the MPCC band from June-August this year. Lower-than-anticipated donor disbursements and higher execution of externally-financed deficit spending resulted in a higher-than-expected FY18/19 fiscal deficit, financed by a higher float and spending adjustment. Strong uptake of longer-term sovereign bond and an increased float led to domestic liquidity pressures in July-September, prompting greater activity on the interbank market and liquidity injections by the central bank. The trade deficit increased slightly more than expected in the first three quarters of 2019, due to adverse terms of trade and strong capital imports. This was largely offset by an improvement in services, largely reflecting strong performance of RwandAir. The RWF had depreciated by 4.7 percent at end-October y/y, and international reserves remain adequate.