Guinea

In response to a request from the BCRG, the IMF conducted an FSSR mission from June 12–24, 2019. A scoping mission had been undertaken in January 2019, and on the basis of that mission it was agreed with the authorities that the FSSR would cover the following topics: (i) financial stability oversight; (ii) systemic liquidity; (iii) payments systems; (iv) banking supervision; and (v) crisis management, bank resolution, and safety nets. While the current economic situation is benign, the financial soundness indicators (FSIs) point to increasing vulnerabilities (see Annex I). The economic outlook is currently positive. Moreover, financial inclusion is growing rapidly as mobile money services are quickly adopted. However, the FSIs suggest growing vulnerabilities and possibly some idiosyncratic stress in the banking sector. For example, nonperforming loans (NPLs), large exposures, and the net-open position are on a negative trend. Given data quality and availability issues, it is however difficult to draw firm conclusions. For example, while the net-open position according to the reported FSIs is larger than 100 percent, prudential reporting points to a ratio of on average below 20 percent. This discrepancy needs further analysis and explanation. In addition, the BCRG does not prepare an adequate analysis and explanation of the drivers of the observed trends.