Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe

Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe
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Volume/Issue: Volume 2020 Issue 218
Publication date: October 2020
ISBN: 9781513559704
$18.00
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Topics covered in this book

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Public Finance , Demography , Pandemics , Lockdowns , Europe , WP , reopening policy , infection curve , infection amplification risk , infection dynamics , infection-death curve , outcome variable , , infection evolution , infection variable , infection situation , effect of reopening , COVID-19 , Public expenditure review

Summary

European authorities introduced stringent lockdown measures in early 2020 to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. As the first wave of infection curves flattened and the outbreak appeared controlled, most countries started to reopen their economies albeit using diverse strategies. This paper introduces a novel daily database of sectoral reopening measures in Europe during the first-wave and documents that country plans differed significantly in terms of timing, pace, and sequencing of sectoral reopening measures. We then show that reopenings led to a recovery in mobility—a proxy for economic activity—but at the cost of somewhat higher infections. However, the experience with reopening reveals some original dimensions of this trade-off. First, the increase in COVID-19 infections after reopening appears less severe in fatality rates. Second, a given reopening step is associated with a worse reinfection outcome in countries that started reopening earlier on the infection curve or that opened all sectors at a fast pace in a relatively short time. Finally, while opening measures tend to have an amplification effect on subsequent cases when a large fraction of the economy is already open, this effect appears heterogenous across sectors.